Portugal bought markedly less Norwegian salted and dried cod in October, the month in which importers normally start building stock for Christmas. According to figures published by the Norwegian Seafood Council on 4 November, Norway’s seafood exports to Portugal were worth NOK 730 million in October, 15% less than a year earlier, and clipfish export volume to Portugal fell 29% to 2,296 tonnes. Exports of salted cod to Portugal dropped 38% to 950 tonnes. At the European Central Bank’s October average of about NOK 10.59 to the euro, October’s total for Portugal is roughly €69 million.

“The Portuguese market is under pressure from reduced availability of cod and significantly higher prices,” said Gudfinna Traustadottir, the Council’s envoy to Portugal. “At the same time, we are now entering the most important season of the year for bacalhau. Developments in November and December will therefore be particularly important in determining how the year ends overall.”

A flat month for Norway, a weak one for Portugal

Across all markets Norway exported seafood worth NOK 18.2 billion in October, NOK 48 million less than a year earlier and, in the Council’s words, virtually unchanged. Salmon set an all-time monthly record of NOK 13 billion on 159,810 tonnes, up 6% in value and 9% in volume, while wild-caught species such as cod, mackerel and haddock fell in both volume and value. A stronger krone against the euro and the dollar also reduced the value of exports measured in kroner, said Christian Chramer, the Council’s chief executive. Year to date, exports total NOK 151.3 billion, up 1%.

Portugal was ninth among Norway’s markets in October, behind Spain (NOK 890 million, up 4%) and ahead of Italy (NOK 656 million, down 4%). Its 15% fall was the steepest of the ten largest markets; only the United States, down 11%, came close. In September, by contrast, Portugal had been ninth with NOK 700 million and growth of 8%, and the Council had reported a 15% rise in the value of clipfish sold to Portugal on 7% less volume, as we reported last month.

Clipfish at its lowest October since 1995

Norway exported 6,921 tonnes of clipfish worth NOK 916 million in October, 18% less by volume and 3% less by value than a year earlier, the lowest export volume for the month since 1995. Low cod quotas and reduced saithe landings are the cause, the Council said. Cod clipfish volume fell 27% to 2,784 tonnes and its value 9% to NOK 575 million; saithe clipfish fell 11% in volume to 3,249 tonnes but rose 5% in value to NOK 250 million. Portugal, Brazil and the Republic of the Congo were the largest markets. Portugal, which the Council describes as Norway’s largest market for cod clipfish, took 2,296 tonnes, and its year-to-date clipfish volume is now down 19%.

The salted fish trade fell further. Norway exported 1,297 tonnes of salted fish worth NOK 176 million, down 39% in volume and 31% in value. Salted cod made up 77% of the category’s value, and Portugal took 95% of salted cod export volume, as it usually does. Its 950 tonnes were 38% below October 2025.

Portuguese shoppers buy less, pay more

The squeeze shows up on Portuguese shelves too. So far this year, retail sales of traditional dried cod in Portugal have fallen 15% while prices have risen 26%, the Council said. Those figures are consistent with the retail signal reported in early October, when Correio da Manhã said bacalhau would cost about €5 a kilo more this Christmas than last. October’s export data suggests that Portuguese buyers are not only paying more but are also taking in less fish ahead of the season, either because they cannot secure it or because they expect consumers to trade down. The Council’s release does not say which.

What to watch

November and December decide the year for bacalhau. The Council’s November figures, due in early December, will show whether Portuguese importers make up October’s shortfall in the last weeks before Christmas or whether the season ends with structurally lower volumes at higher prices. Supply is the binding constraint: frozen cod exports in the first ten months were the lowest since 1991, the last year in which cod quotas were lower than in 2026, according to the Council’s analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan. Some relief has been advised for 2027, when the joint Norwegian-Russian research group recommended a Northeast Arctic cod quota about 10% above this year’s. For Norwegian clipfish and salted fish producers, and for the Portuguese processors who desalt, cut and pack their fish, the question for 2027 is how much of the demand lost to price this year comes back.

Sources: Norwegian Seafood Council, “Norwegian seafood exports remained stable in October” (4 November 2026); European Central Bank euro reference rates (October 2026 monthly average); Correio da Manhã (4 October 2026); Sjømat Norge and the Institute of Marine Research on the 2027 cod advice (June 2026). The euro conversion is a NorthSouth HQ calculation.