The Norwegian Seafood Council released its first-half 2026 export statistics on 3 July, and buried inside a broadly resilient headline number is the single most important data point for the Portugal–Norway trade relationship: clipfish export volumes fell 32 per cent to 24,019 tonnes — the lowest first-half figure since 1992. Export value held up far better, slipping only 12 per cent to NOK 2.5 billion (around €213 million), which tells the story in one line: dramatically less fish, at dramatically higher prices.
Portugal is the world’s largest market for Norwegian clipfish — the dried and salted cod the Portuguese know as bacalhau da Noruega — and cod consumption in Portugal consists almost entirely of clipfish, at roughly 17.5 kg per person per year according to the Seafood Council. When Norwegian clipfish volumes contract by a third, no market feels it more directly than Portugal’s importers, processors and supermarket chains.
A 1 per cent dip that hides a whitefish squeeze
Overall, Norway exported seafood worth NOK 84.5 billion in the first half of 2026, down 1 per cent (NOK 669 million) on the same period in 2025. Record salmon production — 655,598 tonnes worth NOK 58 billion, 69 per cent of total export value — cushioned the decline. “Low quotas for several wild-caught species have resulted in record low export volumes and record high export prices, while geopolitical unrest in the markets has made world trade even more demanding,” said Seafood Council chief executive Christian Chramer in the 3 July announcement.
The whitefish numbers behind that quote are stark. Cod remained Norway’s second most valuable seafood export at NOK 6.1 billion, but that was down 10 per cent year on year. Fresh cod volumes fell 20 per cent to 18,071 tonnes; frozen cod volumes dropped 35 per cent to 13,988 tonnes. Frozen whole cod set a record average export price of NOK 104 per kilo — the first time the species has broken NOK 100 in any half-year period. Salted fish, another category with heavy Portuguese demand, fell 27 per cent in volume to 10,500 tonnes.
What it means for Portuguese buyers
For Portugal’s bacalhau industry — the importers of Ílhavo and Gafanha da Nazaré, the processing houses that soak, cut and re-export, and the retail chains for whom bacalhau remains a traffic anchor at Christmas and Easter — the second half of 2026 now looks locked into structurally higher raw material costs. The Barents Sea cod quota cuts that drove this squeeze were set well in advance, and Norwegian processors are already channelling more of the scarce raw material into clipfish, saltfish and stockfish production rather than the fresh market as they compete for fish. Even so, clipfish volumes still collapsed to a 34-year low.
As NorthSouth HQ reported in June, Portugal was Norway’s fastest-growing seafood market in 2025, taking roughly 51,000 tonnes worth NOK 6.1 billion across all species. The H1 2026 data confirms the trade is now shifting from a volume relationship to a value relationship: Portuguese consumers will keep buying bacalhau — the cultural demand is close to inelastic — but they will pay more per kilo for less fish, and price-sensitive segments will migrate toward smaller cuts, migas and frozen desfiado formats.
The corridor view
The clipfish squeeze is also an opening. Norwegian exporters facing thinner volumes need to defend premium positioning in their most loyal market, which argues for more direct investment in Portuguese distribution, brand-building and category marketing — the Seafood Council already maintains a dedicated envoy for Portugal. In the other direction, Portuguese processors with established soaking and cutting capacity are natural partners for Norwegian groups looking to capture more of the value chain downstream rather than shipping commodity raw material into a shrinking pool.
Elsewhere in the report, Poland remained Norway’s largest seafood market at NOK 10.1 billion, China overtook the United States to become the second largest at NOK 7.4 billion, and exports to the US fell 28 per cent to NOK 6.3 billion under tariff pressure. June itself offered a note of optimism, with exports up 9 per cent to NOK 14.4 billion. But for the Portugal–Norway axis, the defining fact of 2026 is now on the record: the least clipfish Norway has shipped in any first half since 1992, at prices that keep setting records.