Portugal paid more for less Norwegian clipfish in September. According to figures published by the Norwegian Seafood Council on 5 October, Portugal recorded the largest increase in export value among Norway’s clipfish markets in the month, up NOK 64 million, or 15 percent, on September 2025, while the volume shipped fell 7 percent to 2,472 tonnes. The figures landed a day after Correio da Manhã reported that bacalhau will cost €5 a kilo more this Christmas than last — a retail price signal from the market the Council again listed first among Norway’s clipfish buyers, and the one that took almost all of Norway’s salted cod in September.

Across all species, Norway exported seafood worth NOK 17.8 billion in September, NOK 27 million less than a year earlier — “no growth”, as the Council’s headline put it, despite record salmon shipments of 165,393 tonnes worth NOK 13 billion, up 22 percent in volume and 15 percent in value, the highest salmon export value of any single month. “Norway has never exported a higher volume of salmon in a single month than it did in September. At the same time, prices have risen in both euros and US dollars. The fact that the value of the Norwegian seafood exports nevertheless remained unchanged is due to a combination of a stronger Norwegian krone and lower export volumes of trout and several wild-caught species,” said Christian Chramer, the Council’s chief executive. Year to date, exports total NOK 133.2 billion, up NOK 2.3 billion or 2 percent; the third quarter, at NOK 48.8 billion, was up 7 percent after a first quarter down 2 percent and a flat second quarter. Poland led the September market table at NOK 2.4 billion, up 21 percent, ahead of China and the United States. Portugal was ninth at NOK 700 million, up 8 percent, behind Spain (NOK 864 million, up 19 percent) and the United Kingdom (NOK 749 million, up 9 percent).

Paying more for less

Norway exported 6,723 tonnes of clipfish worth NOK 934 million in September. Value rose NOK 68 million, or 8 percent, while volume fell 21 percent, and Portugal, Brazil and Mexico were the largest markets, the Council said. The two main raw materials again moved apart: saithe clipfish volume dropped 36 percent to 2,501 tonnes and its value 17 percent to NOK 208 million, while cod clipfish volume slipped 4 percent to 3,002 tonnes as value climbed 18 percent to NOK 598 million. Export prices for cod, saithe, mackerel, prawns and herring all rose in the month. Over the third quarter, clipfish exports came to 15,000 tonnes worth NOK 2 billion, up NOK 329 million or 20 percent in value on 12 percent less volume. In Brazil and the Caribbean, clipfish export volume is down 42 percent year to date, to 12,200 tonnes, the lowest since 1996, according to the Council’s market analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan, amid competition from Alaska pollock processed in China.

Portugal’s gain alone almost matched the category’s net increase. The Council reported that export value to Portugal rose by NOK 64 million, or 15 percent, on a volume of 2,472 tonnes, 7 percent lower than in September 2025. On NorthSouth HQ’s calculation from those growth figures, that puts clipfish exports to Portugal at roughly NOK 490 million in September, against about NOK 427 million a year earlier — around seven-tenths of the NOK 700 million of Norwegian seafood sold to Portugal in the month, and more than half the value of all Norwegian clipfish exports from about 37 percent of the tonnage. A 15 percent rise in value on 7 percent less volume also implies an average export price roughly 24 percent higher than a year ago, at around NOK 198 a kilo against about NOK 160 (NorthSouth HQ calculation). Year to date, the Council said, cod clipfish exports to Portugal have fallen 15 percent, to just under 9,800 tonnes. In August, cod clipfish volume to Portugal had risen 22 percent to 1,654 tonnes, the second month of growth in a row, and the Council still called the Portuguese market challenging; September’s release shows the bill rising faster than the tonnage.

Almost all the salted cod ended up in Portugal

The salted fish trade, where Portugal, Italy and France were the largest markets in September, fell back after August’s rebound from a low base. Norway exported 1,023 tonnes of salted fish worth NOK 132 million, down NOK 50 million or 27 percent in value and 34 percent in volume, the Council said; over the third quarter the category came to 2,300 tonnes worth NOK 294 million, down 21 percent in value and 28 percent in volume. Salted cod made up 87 percent of the export value and 75 percent of the volume, and Portugal took 96 percent of Norway’s salted cod export value — “nesten alt endte i Portugal” (almost all of it ended up in Portugal), as the Norwegian-language release headed the section. On NorthSouth HQ’s arithmetic, that is roughly NOK 110 million of salted cod bound for Portugal in a single month.

A €5-a-kilo Christmas

On Portuguese shelves, the price signal is already visible. Bacalhau will cost €5 a kilo more this Christmas than last, Correio da Manhã (CM) reported on 4 October; prices are up about 20 percent since January and are expected to rise further. According to the paper, dried salted cod sold for between €14 and €44 a kilo last year and between €16.50 and €48 this year, with the best-selling grades averaging about €25 a kilo; by Christmas the largest and best fish may top €50 a kilo in gourmet shops. Manuel Machado, who has sold bacalhau at the Mercado São João in Braga for almost six decades, told CM the increases reflect higher fuel costs, insurance for fishing vessels that has more than doubled because of wars, and fishing restrictions in Norwegian waters this year and in Icelandic waters next year. Good, large bacalhau is very hard to find, he said, and the best on offer now is Icelandic.

Citing Statistics Portugal (INE), CM puts Portuguese consumption at about 70,000 tonnes of bacalhau a year, some 40,000 tonnes of it over Christmas and New Year, and reports that the cost of the Christmas main dish for a family will rise from almost €200 last year to an average of €250. Those are retail and consumption figures, not export statistics, and they are not directly comparable with the Council’s data. But both point the same way: Norwegian clipfish reached Portugal in September at a markedly higher average price per kilo than a year earlier, and the Portuguese consumer is being asked to pay more for the Christmas fish.

What to watch

Some relief is pencilled in for 2027. On 26 June the joint Norwegian-Russian research group advised a Northeast Arctic cod quota of 312,667 tonnes for 2027, 16 percent above this year’s advice and 10 percent above the quota set for 2026, according to Sjømat Norge and the Institute of Marine Research. Martine Werring-Westly of Sjømat Norge said the advice points to another demanding year, but that “the expectation that this year would be the bottom was met”. Norway and Russia set the final 2027 quotas later in the year. Until then, the squeeze on wild fish is visible elsewhere in the Council’s figures: farmed cod made up 69 percent of the export value of fresh cod in September, and 44 percent year to date against 34 percent a year earlier.

For the corridor, the next two months matter most. October and November are the peak pre-Christmas shipping months, when Portuguese importers and processors take in the fish that will reach the shelves in December. The Council’s October figures, due in early November, will show whether Portuguese buyers keep paying more for less as the season peaks, and the final 2027 cod quota will show how much raw material Norway’s clipfish and salted fish producers will have next year. Either way, Portugal remains the market that sets the tone for the trade: first on the Council’s list of clipfish markets in September, the destination for 96 percent of Norway’s salted cod by value, and a market where, on NorthSouth HQ’s estimate, clipfish alone accounted for about seven-tenths of Norway’s NOK 700 million of seafood sales in the month. For Norwegian exporters and the Seafood Council’s Lisbon office, the Christmas season is starting with price, rather than volume, doing the work.

Sources: Norwegian Seafood Council, “No growth in Norwegian seafood exports in September despite record-high salmon volumes”, and the Norwegian-language version of the release, seafood.no (5 October 2026); Correio da Manhã, “Bacalhau aumenta cinco euros por quilo no Natal” (4 October 2026); Sjømat Norge and the Institute of Marine Research on the 2027 Northeast Arctic cod advice (June 2026). Figures labelled as NorthSouth HQ calculations are derived from the Council’s reported growth rates and are approximate.