Portugal’s goods exports to Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland reached €1,913.0 million in January–September 2026, up 13.6% from €1,684.2 million a year earlier, according to the country tables that accompany the September international trade release published by Statistics Portugal (INE) on 9 November. Total Portuguese exports grew 3.0% over the same nine months. The year-to-date figure is the highest for the first nine months of any year since at least 2019, ahead of €1,827.0 million in 2022, according to Eurostat’s Comext data for Portugal. But September itself went the other way: exports to the three Nordic EU members fell 21.7%, to €150.4 million, in a month when Portuguese exports as a whole rose 5.7%.
The September fall is mostly a comparison with an unusually strong September 2025, when large shipments of copper and zinc concentrates went to Finland and Sweden. It does, however, cut the corridor’s year-to-date growth rate from the 18.1% reported for January–August to 13.6%.
Nine months, country by country
Sweden, the largest of the five markets, bought €859.5 million of Portuguese goods in the nine months, up 9.9%, and Denmark €471.9 million, up 4.1%. Both are the highest January–September totals in the Comext series since at least 2019; Sweden’s previous high was €817.6 million in 2024. Finland, at €330.2 million (up 42.1%), has already overtaken its total for the whole of 2025 (€326.0 million). Norway and Iceland, outside the EU, appear in INE’s tables only as year-to-date totals: €230.3 million (up 13.2%) and €21.2 million (up 63.3%).
| Portuguese exports to | Jan–Sep 2025 (€M) | Jan–Sep 2026 (€M) | Change | Sep 2026 (€M) | Sep change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 781.9 | 859.5 | +9.9% | 82.6 | −10.5% |
| Denmark | 453.5 | 471.9 | +4.1% | 44.5 | −25.7% |
| Finland | 232.4 | 330.2 | +42.1% | 23.4 | −41.5% |
| Norway | 203.5 | 230.3 | +13.2% | n/a | n/a |
| Iceland | 13.0 | 21.2 | +63.3% | n/a | n/a |
| Five Nordic countries | 1,684.2 | 1,913.0 | +13.6% | — | — |
| All destinations | 59,821.9 | 61,633.6 | +3.0% | 7,609.6 | +5.7% |
Source: INE, Estatísticas do Comércio Internacional, September 2026 (published 9 November 2026), tables Q004, Q009 and Q016; NorthSouth HQ calculations. 2026 figures are preliminary. Norway and Iceland are published as year-to-date totals only.
The Nordic share of Portuguese exports rose from 2.8% to 3.1%, and the five countries account for €228.8 million of the €1,811.7 million increase in Portuguese exports this year — about one euro in eight. INE also revised August slightly: the January–August totals now stand at €776.9 million for Sweden (first published as €776.4 million), €427.5 million for Denmark (€428.5 million) and €306.8 million for Finland (€307.1 million).
September: a concentrate-shaped hole
Finland’s September fell from €39.9 million to €23.4 million, and Sweden’s from €92.3 million to €82.6 million. The base explains most of it. According to Eurostat’s Comext product breakdown of INE’s returns, September 2025 included €28.2 million of ores and concentrates to Finland — €16.5 million of zinc and €11.8 million of copper, more than two-thirds of everything Portugal sold Finland that month — and €13.7 million of copper concentrate to Sweden. Comext’s product detail for September 2026 is not yet published, so this year’s mix cannot be confirmed, but the pattern of the past months is the same: ore cargoes are large, irregular and move whole monthly totals. In August, Finland’s exports doubled on €22.7 million of zinc concentrate, while Sweden received almost no copper concentrate (€0.1 million, against €12.3 million in August 2025) after €40.5 million in July.
Portugal’s copper and zinc concentrates come mainly from Neves-Corvo in the Alentejo, which Sweden’s Boliden bought in April 2025 and which, as reported last month, set a quarterly copper record in the third quarter. Boliden runs smelters at Rönnskär in Sweden, Harjavalta and Kokkola in Finland and Odda in Norway. Trade statistics do not name shippers, so an intra-group flow remains the likeliest reading rather than an established fact.
Ores still carry most of the growth
Over January–August, the latest period with product detail, exports to Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway rose by €257.6 million in Comext’s figures, from €1,458.8 million to €1,716.4 million. Chapter 26 of the Combined Nomenclature — ores, slag and ash — accounts for €156.5 million of that, or 61%: ore exports to the four countries rose from €233.1 million to €389.6 million, with Finland up from €67.3 million to €166.4 million, Norway (zinc) from €61.5 million to €92.8 million and Sweden (copper) from €104.3 million to €130.2 million. Excluding ores, exports to the four rose 8.2%, still well ahead of Portugal’s national rate.
Denmark has no ore trade with Portugal, which makes its September drop of 25.7% harder to read. Statistics Denmark’s own figures, published the same day, recorded imports from Portugal in September 1.2% above September 2025, at DKK 278.8 million. The two offices compile their figures independently, and monthly gaps of this size between one country’s recorded exports and its partner’s recorded imports are common, because of timing, valuation and goods routed through third countries. The gap runs across the whole third quarter: DST shows imports from Portugal up 14.0% in July–September, while INE shows exports to Denmark down 6.3%, from €158.6 million to €148.7 million — a reason to read either series over several months rather than one.
Imports fall, and the balance widens
The release also shows the corridor tilting further in Portugal’s favour. Imports from the five Nordic countries fell 1.5% in January–September, to €1,563.5 million, while total Portuguese imports rose 5.7%. Portugal’s goods surplus with the region therefore widened from €96.9 million to €349.5 million, even as the national deficit grew. The import side — Swedish cars and Norwegian salt cod down, Danish grain up from nothing — is analysed in a separate piece today.
What comes next: Statistics Norway’s October figures and Statistics Sweden’s September figures are due later in November, and Eurostat’s September product detail will show whether this year’s September ore shipments were simply smaller or absent. INE’s October release is due in early December. Excluding Iceland, the four larger markets have taken €1,891.8 million so far; another €338 million in the fourth quarter would pass the €2.23 billion that Eurostat records for the whole of 2025.
Sources: INE, international trade release for September 2026 and Excel tables (9 November 2026); Eurostat Comext DS-045409 (accessed 10 November 2026); Statistics Denmark SITC2R4 (9 November 2026). Previous instalment: January–August.