Statistics Sweden’s July foreign-trade tables, published on 28 September, show that copper-bearing material from Portugal worth SEK 1,533.5 million (about €142 million at monthly ECB rates) entered Sweden in January–July 2026. That is 79% more than the SEK 855.6 million of the same months of 2025, and it equals 23% of everything Sweden imported from Portugal in the period — SEK 6,635.5 million in total, up 9.3%. A year earlier the same material was 14% of the bill.
SEK 1,132.5 million of the total is booked where it belongs, under copper ores and concentrates (CN 2603). The other SEK 401.0 million arrived in two consignments, in May and July, recorded as waste and scrap of refined copper (CN 7404 00 10). NorthSouth HQ went through the eight-digit data line by line, and those two entries do not behave like scrap. By weight, by timing and by price per tonne they look like concentrate from a Portuguese mine.
Two cargoes that do not behave like scrap
Refined-copper scrap from Portugal used to be a trickle. In the whole of 2025, Sweden recorded 87 tonnes of it, worth SEK 11.2 million, in lots of 10 to 36 tonnes valued at SEK 112,800 to 153,100 a tonne — roughly what clean copper scrap fetches. Then, in May 2026, a single month brought 7,655 tonnes worth SEK 172.9 million, and July brought 8,192 tonnes worth SEK 224.1 million. The declared values work out at SEK 22,592 and SEK 27,356 a tonne: between a fifth and a quarter of the SEK 106,967 a tonne Sweden paid for refined-copper scrap under the same code from every other origin in January–July (SEK 3,087.2 million for 28,861 tonnes).
Those numbers match the concentrate line almost exactly. Portugal’s concentrate consignments to Sweden in 2026 weighed 7,667 to 8,579 tonnes each (plus a 15,808-tonne January entry, which reads like two ships) and were valued at SEK 20,829 to 27,675 a tonne. And May and July are the only two months of 2026 with no concentrate entry from Portugal at all. Put the two headings together and a cargo arrived in every month of the year. NorthSouth HQ’s reading is that these are concentrate shipments filed under the scrap code. Statistics Sweden’s monthly figures are preliminary and subject to revision, and the May entry had not been reclassified by the 28 September release. NorthSouth HQ’s half-year analysis flagged that May consignment as a copper-articles spike to be treated as a one-off until it repeated. It has now repeated, and on this reading it belongs with the ores.
Volumes up 45%, prices up 22%
Counting both headings, Sweden took 64,394 tonnes of Portuguese copper-bearing material in seven months, against 44,553 tonnes a year earlier, an increase of 44.5%. The value per tonne of the concentrate line rose from SEK 19,098 to SEK 23,338, up 22%, in line with the “favorable metal prices” Boliden cited in its second-quarter report. Counting both codes, seven months of 2026 have already out-earned every full year in the table, which starts in 1995: the previous high for copper concentrate from Portugal was SEK 1,472.2 million in 2024 (79,809 tonnes), with SEK 1,234.1 million in 2023 (72,407 tonnes) and SEK 1,382.6 million in 2025 (72,856 tonnes).
Portugal is also a bigger share of a shrinking Swedish intake. Sweden’s imports of copper ores and concentrates from all origins fell from 297,554 tonnes in January–July 2025 to 205,684 tonnes this year. Portugal’s share rose from 10.9% of the value and 15.0% of the weight to 15.6% of the value on the concentrate code alone — or 20.0% of the value and 29.1% of the weight once the two May and July cargoes are counted as concentrate.
| Swedish imports from Portugal | Jan–Jul 2026 | Jan–Jul 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper ores and concentrates (CN 2603) | SEK 1,132.5m / 48,527 t | SEK 850.0m / 44,507 t | +33.2% |
| Refined-copper waste and scrap (CN 7404 00 10) | SEK 401.0m / 15,867 t | SEK 5.6m / 46 t | n/m |
| Copper-bearing total | SEK 1,533.5m / 64,394 t | SEK 855.6m / 44,553 t | +79.2% |
| All goods excluding chapters 26 and 74 | SEK 5,096.4m | SEK 5,211.9m | −2.2% |
| All goods | SEK 6,635.5m | SEK 6,068.8m | +9.3% |
Source: Statistics Sweden, ImpTotalKNMan (imports by CN 2-, 4- and 8-digit heading and country of consignment), table updated 28 September 2026, extracted 29 September 2026.
Whose copper, whose smelter
Customs statistics do not name shippers or buyers, but the geography narrows the field. Portugal’s base-metal concentrates come from the Iberian Pyrite Belt, where the largest operation is Neves-Corvo in Castro Verde, run by Somincor. Boliden completed its purchase of Somincor and the Swedish Zinkgruvan mine from Lundin Mining on 16 April 2025, paying USD 1.40 billion in cash with up to USD 150 million more contingent on metal prices; the Swedish group said at the time that the deal would “almost double” its zinc concentrate production and “significantly strengthen” its copper concentrate production. Boliden’s Rönnskär copper smelter at Skelleftehamn takes copper and lead concentrates from the group’s own mines and from external suppliers. An intra-group flow from the Alentejo to the Gulf of Bothnia is the most likely reading of the numbers, although third-party trading of concentrate cannot be ruled out from the statistics alone. The other Pyrite Belt producer, the Aljustrel mine operated by Almina, also exports base-metal concentrates.
The zinc half goes to Norway
The zinc side of the same ore body shows up in Norwegian statistics. Statistics Norway’s eight-digit table 08799 records NOK 1,020.9 million (about €92 million) of zinc ores and concentrates (CN 2608) imported from Portugal in January–August 2026, 90,952 tonnes, up 28.5% in value and 11.4% in weight from NOK 794.8 million and 81,668 tonnes a year earlier. Value per tonne rose 15%, from NOK 9,732 to NOK 11,225. July alone brought NOK 275.2 million and 22,977 tonnes, the highest monthly value for Norwegian ore imports from Portugal in Statistics Norway’s series, which starts in 1988. It is the only metalliferous-ore line Norway buys from Portugal — no copper concentrate and no scrap appear in the table — and the obvious destination is Boliden’s zinc smelter at Odda in Hardanger, whose expansion the company said in July was ramping up more slowly than expected.
Strip out the mines and Sweden is buying less
The headline 9.3% growth in Swedish imports from Portugal is almost entirely a mining story. Excluding ores (chapter 26) and copper (chapter 74), Sweden imported SEK 5,096.4 million of Portuguese goods in January–July, 2.2% less than the SEK 5,211.9 million of 2025. July on its own was weak: total imports from Portugal fell 21.5% to SEK 723.4 million, and 23.3% to SEK 499.3 million without ores and copper. Vehicles fell 24.8% to SEK 535.3 million, wood pulp 22.7% to SEK 426.0 million, woven apparel 25.3% to SEK 141.7 million and beverages 12.2% to SEK 141.2 million. The lines still growing are the ones NorthSouth HQ flagged at the half-year: electrical equipment (+3.0%, SEK 1,460.1 million), instruments (+17.9%, SEK 573.2 million), furniture (+87.3%, SEK 260.1 million), knitwear (+15.2%, SEK 178.0 million) and articles of iron and steel (+29.2%, SEK 80.7 million).
Why this matters for the corridor
A year and a half after Boliden’s purchase, the largest Portuguese export flow to Sweden and to Norway runs from one Alentejo mine to Nordic smelters, and it now moves the national totals on its own. For anyone reading Portugal’s export growth to the Nordics as a sign of manufacturing momentum, the ex-mining figure is the one to watch: flat to falling in Sweden this year, with furniture, instruments and knitwear doing the work. For the statistics, the lesson is narrower: a concentrate cargo filed under a scrap code can turn a mining flow into an apparent boom in “copper articles”. The next reference points are Boliden’s third-quarter report on 29 October, Statistics Sweden’s August trade release at the end of October and Statistics Norway’s September figures in mid-October.
Sources: Statistics Sweden (SCB), foreign trade in goods by CN heading and trading partner, table ImpTotalKNMan, monthly data to July 2026 (updated 28 September 2026); Statistics Norway (SSB), tables 08799 and 08806, monthly data to August 2026 (updated 15 September 2026); Boliden press release of 16 April 2025 and financial calendar; Boliden Q2 2026 interim report. SEK and NOK converted to euros at ECB monthly average reference rates.